EUROCONSTRUCT Special Update August 2020 – A Visual Summaryby János Gáspár - Buildecon, Hungary
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1. The shrinkage of the total construction market in 2020 is expected to be less harsh according to the August 2020 forecast, and recovery is on from 2021. This recovery is not superfast, though, as the 2022 level is still foreseen to be below the 2019 level. In our latest outlook 2020 could end up with an around 9% decline in the EUROCONSTRUCT area. Among the biggest markets, the UK seems to be hardest hit by the consequences of the pandemic. Excluding the UK (chart on the right) the decline in real terms is around 7% this year.
2. In most countries the stories after the revision remained pretty similar to those we forecast in June. Charts below are organized by region, the dotted black line represents the 2019 level. At Europe’ heartland and in the Nordic countries (in the top row) there are very stable markets. Except for Finland and Sweden, each of them foresees the total market in 2021 to be around the level of 2019. Out of the largest countries, the most sluggish recovery could be in the Netherlands, in the UK and in Spain. Poland seems to be crisis-resistant.
3. The countries here are ranked by market size. Poland, Belgium, Portugal and Slovakia revised its 2020 growth rate downward. Two of them, Poland and Portugal, were the most optimistic in the June 2020 forecast round. Among those having been the most pessimistic in June, France, Italy, the UK, Spain and Ireland, only Spain remained unchanged. The 4 other countries have revised upward. But what does it mean in money?