Forecasting the EPC distribution according to the EU commission’s objectives

Based on European and national policies and targets on the energy performance of buildings, BDO-BIPE has developed a method for forecasting the stock’s distribution of energy performance certificates (EPC) for buildings by 2050.

In order to show the results of this original method, this article will describe the European framework for energy renovation (I). It will then study the current situation of the buildings’ energy performance in France and Italy (II). Finally, according to the method developed by BDO-BIPE, it will present the EPC distribution’s potential evolution in these two countries in order to reach the Commission’s objectives (III).

The European Framework
On last December 15th, the European Commission proposed a new directive on the energy performance of buildings – 2021/0426 (COD). This directive is part of the Commission’s “Fit for 55” proposals as it complements the other components of the package adopted in July 2021. As for the Commission, this proposal sets the vision for achieving a zero-emission building stock by 2050¹. The institution reminds that this proposal is a key element to achieve the 2030 and 2050 decarbonisation objectives as buildings account for 40% of the energy consumed in the EU and 36% of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions; heating, cooling and domestic hot water are responsible for 80% of the energy that households consume.

The Commission proposal therefore aims to facilitate the renovation of the building stock and to encourage the construction of new zero-emission buildings. For instance, the text proposes that as of 2030, all new buildings must be zero-emission – as of 2027 for new public buildings – and that the worst-performing 15% of the building stock of each Member State to be upgraded from the Energy Performance Certificate’s Grade G to at least Grade F by 2027 for non-residential buildings and 2030 for residential buildings.

In addition to this general frame, all the EU Member States published a long term renovation strategy². Those national strategies are supposed to implement the European strategy by supporting the renovation of their national building stock into a highly energy-efficient and decarbonised building stock by 2050.

For instance, the French national strategy plans to act around four objectives³:

• Support households to help them renovate their homes and thus combat fuel poverty and thermal flats as a priority;
• Accelerate renovation in tertiary buildings with the aim of making public buildings exemplary in this area (15% energy savings expected between 2017 and 2022 for the State’s building stock);
• Mobilise and involve the territories and local players;
• Create a dynamic industry to renovate more, better and cheaper.

Their implementation involves the use of 14 billion euros of public support in the form of investments and bonuses, supplemented by more than 5 billion euros of energy saving certificates used directly to finance energy renovation work.

In the same vein, the Italian plan relies heavily on the renovation of public buildings and incentives for households through tax measures. For example, the “Superbonus” provides for a tax deduction of up to 110% to be offered to homeowners on expenses related to energy upgrades and seismic risk reduction⁴.

The energy performance of the French and Italian building stock
The study of the French and Italian building stocks and their energy performance certificates illustrates the different renovation needs that different EU member states may have.

The study of the structure of the French and Italian building stocks shows similarities for residential and non-residential buildings. For example, in both cases more than 60% of the buildings were built before 1989. French residential buildings built from the 2000s onwards constitute a larger share of the stock than in Italy – 27% in France, 22% in Italy. This observation can be reversed for non-residential building stock – 25% in Italy, 18% in France.